Global liquidity stress testing and scenario analysis is one of the key tools for measuring liquidity risk and evaluating the Group’s short-term liquidity position within the liquidity framework. It complements the intraday operational liquidity management process and the long-term liquidity strategy, represented by the Funding Matrix.
Our global liquidity stress testing process is managed by Treasury in accordance with the Management Board approved risk appetite. Treasury is responsible for the design of the overall methodology, including the definition of the stress scenarios, the choice of liquidity risk drivers and the determination of appropriate assumptions (parameters) to translate input data into model results. Liquidity Risk Management is responsible for the independent validation of liquidity risk models. Liquidity and Treasury Reporting & Analysis (LTRA) is responsible for implementing these methodologies in conjunction with Treasury and IT as well as for the stress test calculation.
We use stress testing and scenario analysis to evaluate the impact of sudden and severe stress events on our liquidity position. The scenarios we apply are based on historic events, such as the 2008 financial markets crisis.
Deutsche Bank has selected five scenarios to calculate the Group’s stressed Net Liquidity Position (“sNLP”). These scenarios capture the historical experience of Deutsche Bank during periods of idiosyncratic and/or market-wide stress and are assumed to be both plausible and sufficiently severe as to materially impact the Group’s liquidity position. A global market crisis, for example, is covered by a specific stress scenario (systemic market risk) that models the potential consequences observed during the financial crisis of 2008. Additionally, we have introduced regional market stress scenarios. Under each of the scenarios we assume a high degree of maturing loans to non-wholesale customers is rolled-over, to support our business franchise. Wholesale funding, from the most risk sensitive counterparties (including banks and money-market mutual funds) is assumed to roll-off at contractual maturity or even be bought back, in the acute phase of the stress.
In addition, we include the potential funding requirements from contingent liquidity risks which might arise, including credit facilities, increased collateral requirements under derivative agreements, and outflows from deposits with a contractual rating linked trigger.
We then model the actions we would take to counterbalance the outflows incurred. Countermeasures include utilizing the Liquidity Reserve and generating liquidity from unencumbered, marketable assets.
Stress testing is conducted at a global level and for defined individual legal entities. In addition to the global stress test, stress tests for material currencies (EUR, USD and GBP) are performed. We review our stress-testing assumptions on a regular basis and have made further enhancements to the methodology and severity of certain parameters through the course of 2017.
On a daily basis, we run the liquidity stress test over an eight-week horizon, which we consider the most critical time span in a liquidity crisis, and apply the relevant stress assumptions to risk drivers from on-balance sheet and off-balance sheet products. Beyond the eight week time horizon, we analyze the impact of a more prolonged stress period, extending to twelve months. This stress testing analysis is performed on a daily basis.
In the second half of 2016, the Bank experienced deposit outflows as a result of negative market perceptions concerning Deutsche Bank in the context of civil claims then being negotiated with the U.S. Department of Justice in connection with the Bank’s issuance and underwriting of residential mortgage backed securities. As part of the lessons learned from this period, the risk appetite was increased from € 5 billion as per December 2016 to € 10 billion in January 2017. The risk appetite to maintain a surplus of at least € 10 billion throughout the 8 week stress horizon under all scenarios for our daily global liquidity stress test remained at this level for the rest of 2017.