Deutsche Bank

Annual Report 2017

Managing and Mitigation of Credit Risk

Managing Credit Risk on Counterparty Level

Credit-related counterparties are principally allocated to credit officers within credit teams which are aligned to types of counterparty (such as financial institutions, corporates or private individuals) or economic area (e.g., emerging markets) and dedicated rating analyst teams. The individual credit officers have the relevant expertise and experience to manage the credit risks associated with these counterparties and their associated credit related transactions. For retail clients, credit decision making and credit monitoring is highly automated for efficiency reasons. Credit Risk Management has full oversight of the respective processes and tools used in the retail credit process. It is the responsibility of each credit officer to undertake ongoing credit monitoring for their allocated portfolio of counterparties. We also have procedures in place intended to identify at an early stage credit exposures for which there may be an increased risk of loss.

In instances where we have identified counterparties where there is a concern that the credit quality has deteriorated or appears likely to deteriorate to the point where they present a heightened risk of loss in default, the respective exposure is generally placed on a “watch list”. We aim to identify counterparties that, on the basis of the application of our risk management tools, demonstrate the likelihood of problems well in advance in order to effectively manage the credit exposure and maximize the recovery. The objective of this early warning system is to address potential problems while adequate options for action are still available. This early risk detection is a tenet of our credit culture and is intended to ensure that greater attention is paid to such exposures.

Credit limits are established by the Credit Risk Management function via the execution of assigned credit authorities. This also applies to settlement risk that must fall within limits pre-approved by Credit Risk Management considering risk appetite and in a manner that reflects expected settlement patterns for the subject counterparty. Credit approvals are documented by the signing of the credit report by the respective credit authority holders and retained for future reference.

Credit authority is generally assigned to individuals as personal credit authority according to the individual’s professional qualification, experience and training. All assigned credit authorities are reviewed on a periodic basis to help ensure that they are commensurate with the individual performance of the authority holder.

Where an individual’s personal authority is insufficient to establish required credit limits, the transaction is referred to a higher credit authority holder or where necessary to an appropriate credit committee. Where personal and committee authorities are insufficient to establish appropriate limits, the case is referred to the Management Board for approval.

Mitigation of Credit Risk on Counterparty Level

In addition to determining counterparty credit quality and our risk appetite, we also use various credit risk mitigation techniques to optimize credit exposure and reduce potential credit losses. Credit risk mitigants are applied in the following forms:

  • Comprehensive and enforceable credit documentation with adequate terms and conditions.
  • Collateral held as security to reduce losses by increasing the recovery of obligations.
  • Risk transfers, which shift the loss arising from the probability of default risk of an obligor to a third party including hedging executed by our Credit Portfolio Strategies Group.
  • Netting and collateral arrangements which reduce the credit exposure from derivatives and securities financing transactions (e.g. repo transactions).

Collateral

We regularly agree on collateral to be received from or to be provided to customers in contracts that are subject to credit risk. Collateral is security in the form of an asset or third-party obligation that serves to mitigate the inherent risk of credit loss in an exposure, by either substituting the counterparty default risk or improving recoveries in the event of a default. While collateral can be an alternative source of repayment, it does not replace the necessity of high quality underwriting standards and a thorough assessment of the debt service ability of the counterparty in line with CRR Article 194 (9).

We segregate collateral received into the following two types:

  • Financial and other collateral, which enables us to recover all or part of the outstanding exposure by liquidating the collateral asset provided, in cases where the counterparty is unable or unwilling to fulfill its primary obligations. Cash collateral, securities (equity, bonds), collateral assignments of other claims or inventory, equipment (i.e., plant, machinery and aircraft) and real estate typically fall into this category. All financial collateral is regularly, mostly daily, revalued and measured against the respective credit exposure. The value of other collateral, including real estate, is monitored based upon established processes that includes regular revaluations by internal and/or external experts.
  • Guarantee collateral, which complements the counterparty’s ability to fulfill its obligation under the legal contract and as such is provided by third parties. Letters of credit, insurance contracts, export credit insurance, guarantees, credit derivatives and risk participations typically fall into this category. Guarantee collateral with a non-investment grade rating of the guarantor is limited.

Our processes seek to ensure that the collateral we accept for risk mitigation purposes is of high quality. This includes seeking to have in place legally effective and enforceable documentation for realizable and measureable collateral assets which are evaluated regularly by dedicated teams. The assessment of the suitability of collateral for a specific transaction is part of the credit decision and must be undertaken in a conservative way, including collateral haircuts that are applied. We have collateral type specific haircuts in place which are regularly reviewed and approved. In this regard, we strive to avoid “wrong-way” risk characteristics where the counterparty’s risk is positively correlated with the risk of deterioration in the collateral value. For guarantee collateral, the process for the analysis of the guarantor’s creditworthiness is aligned to the credit assessment process for counterparties.

Risk Transfers

Risk transfers to third parties form a key part of our overall risk management process and are executed in various forms, including outright sales, single name and portfolio hedging, and securitizations. Risk transfers are conducted by the respective business units and by our Credit Portfolio Strategies Group (CPSG), in accordance with specifically approved mandates.

CPSG manages the residual credit risk of loans and lending-related commitments of the institutional and corporate credit portfolio, the leveraged portfolio and the medium-sized German companies’ portfolio within our CIB Division.

Acting as a central pricing reference, CPSG provides the businesses with an observed or derived capital market rate for loan applications; however, the decision of whether or not the business can enter into the credit risk remains exclusively with Credit Risk Management.

CPSG is concentrating on two primary objectives within the credit risk framework to enhance risk management discipline, improve returns and use capital more efficiently:

  • to reduce single-name credit risk concentrations within the credit portfolio and
  • to manage credit exposures by utilizing techniques including loan sales, securitization via collateralized loan obligations, sub-participations and single-name and portfolio credit default swaps.

Netting and Collateral Arrangements for Derivatives and Securities Financing Transactions

Netting is applicable to both exchange traded derivatives and OTC derivatives. Netting is also applied to securities financing transactions (e.g. repurchase, securities lending and margin lending transactions) as far as documentation, structure and nature of the risk mitigation allow netting with the underlying credit risk.

All exchange traded derivatives are cleared through central counterparties (“CCPs”), which interpose themselves between the trading entities by becoming the counterparty to each of the entities. Where legally required or where available and to the extent agreed with our counterparties, we also use CCP clearing for our OTC derivative transactions.

The Dodd-Frank Act (“DFA”) and related Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) rules introduced in 2013 mandatory CCP clearing in the United States for certain standardized OTC derivative transactions, including certain interest rate swaps and index credit default swaps. Additionally, the CFTC adopted final rules in 2016 that require additional interest rate swaps to be cleared on a phased implementation schedule ending in October 2018. The European Regulation (EU) No 648/2012 on OTC Derivatives, Central Counterparties and Trade Repositories (“EMIR”) and the Commission Delegated Regulations (EU) 2015/2205, (EU) 2015/592 and (EU) 2016/1178 based thereupon introduced mandatory CCP clearing in the EU clearing for certain standardized OTC derivatives transactions. Mandatory CCP clearing in the EU began for certain interest rate derivatives on June 21, 2016 and for certain iTraxx-based credit derivatives and additional interest rate derivatives on February 9, 2017. Article 4 (2) of EMIR authorizes competent authorities to exempt intragroup transactions from mandatory CCP clearing, provided certain requirements, such as full consolidation of the intragroup transactions and the application of an appropriate centralized risk evaluation, measurement and control procedure are met. The Bank successfully applied for the clearing exemption for most of its regulatory-consolidated subsidiaries with intragroup derivatives, including e.g., Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. and Deutsche Bank Luxembourg S.A. As of December 31, 2017, the Bank has obtained intragroup exemptions from the EMIR clearing obligation for 70 bilateral intragroup relationships. The extent of the exemptions differs as not all entities enter into relevant transaction types subject to the clearing obligation. Of the 70 intragroup relationships, 17 are relationships where both entities are established in the Union (EU) for which a full exemption has been granted, and 53 are relationships where one is established in a third country (“Third Country Relationship”). Third Country Relationships currently require repeat applications for each new asset class being subject to the clearing obligation. Such repeat applications have been filed for 39 of the Third Country Relationships.

The rules and regulations of CCPs typically provide for the bilateral set off of all amounts payable on the same day and in the same currency (“payment netting”) thereby reducing our settlement risk. Depending on the business model applied by the CCP, this payment netting applies either to all of our derivatives cleared by the CCP or at least to those that form part of the same class of derivatives. Many CCP rules and regulations also provide for the termination, close-out and netting of all cleared transactions upon the CCP’s default (“close-out netting”), which reduced our credit risk. In our risk measurement and risk assessment processes we apply close-out netting only to the extent we have satisfied ourselves of the legal validity and enforceability of the relevant CCP’s close-out netting provisions.

In order to reduce the credit risk resulting from OTC derivative transactions, where CCP clearing is not available, we regularly seek the execution of standard master agreements (such as master agreements for derivatives published by the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, Inc. (ISDA) or the German Master Agreement for Financial Derivative Transactions) with our counterparts. A master agreement allows for the close-out netting of rights and obligations arising under derivative transactions that have been entered into under such a master agreement upon the counterparty’s default, resulting in a single net claim owed by or to the counterparty. For parts of the derivatives business (e.g., foreign exchange transactions) we also enter into master agreements under which payment netting applies in respect to transactions covered by such master agreements, reducing our settlement risk. In our risk measurement and risk assessment processes we apply close-out netting only to the extent we have satisfied ourselves of the legal validity and enforceability of the master agreement in all relevant jurisdictions.

Also, we enter into credit support annexes (“CSA”) to master agreements in order to further reduce our derivatives-related credit risk. These annexes generally provide risk mitigation through periodic, usually daily, margining of the covered exposure. The CSAs also provide for the right to terminate the related derivative transactions upon the counterparty’s failure to honor a margin call. As with netting, when we believe the annex is enforceable, we reflect this in our exposure measurement.

The Dodd-Frank Act and CFTC rules thereunder, including CFTC rules § 23.504 and § 23.158, as well as EMIR and Commission Delegated Regulation based thereupon, namely Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/2251, introduced the mandatory use of master agreements and related CSAs, which must be executed prior to or contemporaneously with entering into an uncleared OTC derivative transaction. Under U.S. margin rules adopted by U.S. prudential regulators (the Federal Reserve, the FDIC, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the Farm Credit Administration and Federal Housing Finance Agency) and the CFTC, we are required to post and collect initial margin and variation margin for our derivatives exposures with other derivatives dealers, as well as with our counterparties that (a) are “financial end users,” as that term is defined in the U.S. margin rules, and (b) have an average daily aggregate notional amount of uncleared swaps, uncleared security-based swaps, foreign exchange forwards and foreign exchange swaps exceeding U.S.$ 8 billion in June, July and August of the previous calendar year. The U.S. margin rules additionally require us to post and collect variation margin for our derivatives with other financial end user counterparties. These margin requirements are subject to a U.S.$ 50 million threshold for initial margin and a zero threshold for variation margin, with a combined U.S.$ 500,000 minimum transfer amount. The U.S. margin requirements have been in effect for large banks since September 2016, with additional variation margin requirements having come into effect March 1, 2017 and additional initial margin requirements phased in on an annual basis from September 2017 through September 2020.

Under EMIR the CSA must provide for daily valuation and daily variation margining based on a zero threshold and a minimum transfer amount of not more than € 500,000. For large derivative exposures exceeding € 8 billion, initial margin has to be posted as well. The variation margin requirements under EMIR apply as of March 1, 2017; the initial margin requirements will be subject to a staged phase-in until September 1, 2020. Pursuant to Article 11 (5) to (10) of EMIR competent authorities are authorized to exempt intragroup transactions from the margining obligation, provided certain requirements are met. While some of those requirements are the same as for the EMIR clearing exemptions (see above), there are additional requirements such as the absence of any current or foreseen practical or legal impediment to the prompt transfer of funds or repayment of liabilities between intragroup counterparties. The Bank plans to make use of this exemption. The Bank has successfully applied for the collateral exemption for some of its regulatory-consolidated subsidiaries with intragroup derivatives, including, e.g., Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. and Deutsche Bank Luxembourg S.A. As of December 31, 2017, the Bank has obtained intragroup exemptions from the EMIR collateral obligation for 13 bilateral intragroup relationships, and one application is still pending.

Certain CSAs to master agreements provide for rating-dependent triggers, where additional collateral must be pledged if a party’s rating is downgraded. We also enter into master agreements that provide for an additional termination event upon a party’s rating downgrade. These downgrade provisions in CSAs and master agreements usually apply to both parties but in some agreements may apply to us only. We analyze and monitor our potential contingent payment obligations resulting from a rating downgrade in our stress testing approach for liquidity risk on an ongoing basis. For an assessment of the quantitative impact of a downgrading of our credit rating please refer to table “Stress Testing Results” in the section “Liquidity Risk”.

Concentrations within Credit Risk Mitigation

Concentrations within credit risk mitigations taken may occur if a number of guarantors and credit derivative providers with similar economic characteristics are engaged in comparable activities with changes in economic or industry conditions affecting their ability to meet contractual obligations. We use a range of tools and metrics to monitor our credit risk mitigating activities.

For more qualitative and quantitative details in relation to the application of credit risk mitigation and potential concentration effects please refer to the section “Maximum Exposure to Credit Risk”.

Managing Credit Risk on Portfolio Level

On a portfolio level, significant concentrations of credit risk could result from having material exposures to a number of counterparties with similar economic characteristics, or who are engaged in comparable activities, where these similarities may cause their ability to meet contractual obligations to be affected in the same manner by changes in economic or industry conditions.

Our portfolio management framework supports a comprehensive assessment of concentrations within our credit risk portfolio in order to keep concentrations within acceptable levels.

Industry Risk Management

To manage industry risk, we have grouped our corporate and financial institutions counterparties into various industry sub-portfolios. For each of these portfolios an “Industry Strategy Document” is prepared, usually on an annual basis. This report highlights industry developments and risks to our credit portfolio, reviews cross-risk concentration risks, analyses the risk/reward profile of the portfolio and incorporates an economic downside stress test. Finally, this analysis is used to define the credit strategies for the portfolio in question.

Beyond credit risk, our Industry Risk Framework comprises of Market Risk thresholds for Traded Credit Positions while key non-financial risks are closely monitored.

The Industry Strategy Documents have been presented to the Enterprise Risk Committee. In addition to these analyses, the development of the industry portfolios is regularly monitored during the year and is compared with the approved portfolio strategies. Regular overviews are prepared for the Enterprise Risk Committee to discuss recent developments and to agree on actions where necessary.

Country Risk Management

Avoiding undue concentrations from a regional perspective is also an integral part of our credit risk management framework. In order to achieve this, country risk limits are applied to Emerging Markets as well as selected Developed Markets countries (based on internal country risk ratings). Emerging Markets are grouped into regions and for each region, as well as for the Higher Risk Developed Markets, a “Country Strategy Document” is prepared, usually on an annual basis. These reports assess key macroeconomic developments and outlook, review portfolio composition and cross-risk concentration risks and analyze the risk/reward profile of the portfolio. Based on this, thresholds and strategies are set for countries and, where relevant, for the region as a whole. Country risk thresholds are approved by our Enterprise Risk Committee and by the Management Board at Postbank for respective portfolios.

In our Country Limit framework, thresholds are established for counterparty credit risk exposures in a given country to manage the aggregated credit risk subject to country-specific economic and political events. These thresholds include exposures to entities incorporated locally as well as subsidiaries of foreign multinational corporations. Also, gap risk thresholds are set to control the risk of loss due to intra-country wrong-way risk exposure.

Beyond credit risk, our Country Risk Framework comprises Market Risk thresholds for trading positions in emerging markets that are based on the P&L impact of potential stressed market events on these positions. Furthermore we take into consideration treasury risk comprising thresholds for capital positions and intra-group funding exposure of Deutsche Bank entities in above countries given the transfer risk inherent in these cross-border positions. Key non-financial risks are closely monitored.

Our country risk ratings represent a key tool in our management of country risk. They are established by the independent ERM Risk Research function within Deutsche Bank and include:

  • Sovereign rating: A measure of the probability of the sovereign defaulting on its foreign or local currency obligations.
  • Transfer risk rating: A measure of the probability of a “transfer risk event”, i.e., the risk that an otherwise solvent debtor is unable to meet its obligations due to inability to obtain foreign currency or to transfer assets as a result of direct sovereign intervention.
  • Event risk rating: A measure of the probability of major disruptions in the market risk factors relating to a country (interest rates, credit spreads, etc.). Event risks are measured as part of our event risk scenarios, as described in the section “Market Risk Measurement” of this report.

All sovereign and transfer risk ratings are reviewed, at least on an annual basis.

Product/Asset Class specific Risk Management

Complementary to our counterparty, industry and country risk approach, we focus on product/asset class specific risk concentrations and selectively set limits, thresholds or indicators where required for risk management purposes. Specific risk limits are set in particular if a concentration of transactions of a specific type might lead to significant losses under certain cases. In this respect, correlated losses might result from disruptions of the functioning of financial markets, significant moves in market parameters to which the respective product is sensitive, macroeconomic default scenarios or other factors. Specific focus is put on concentrations of transactions with underwriting risks where we underwrite commitments with the intention to sell down or distribute part of the risk to third parties. These commitments include the undertaking to fund bank loans and to provide bridge loans for the issuance of public bonds. The risk is that we may not be successful in the distribution of the facilities, meaning that we would have to hold more of the underlying risk for longer periods of time than originally intended. These underwriting commitments are additionally exposed to market risk in the form of widening credit spreads. We dynamically hedge this credit spread risk to be within the approved market risk limit framework.

In addition to underwriting risk, we also focus on concentration of transactions with specific risk dynamics (including risk to commercial real estate and risk from securitization positions).

Furthermore, in our PCC businesses, we apply product-specific strategies setting our risk appetite for sufficiently homogeneous portfolios where tailored client analysis is secondary, such as the retail portfolios of mortgages and business and consumer finance products. In Wealth Management, target levels are set for global concentrations along products as well as based on type and liquidity of collateral.