For countries in which Private & Business Clients (PBC) operates the overall macro-economic outlook is mixed. GDP growth in the home market Germany has a slightly positive outlook for 2013 and an even better outlook for 2014, while the GDP outlook for most of the European countries in which PBC is present is rather slightly negative. The economy in Asia is expected to show relatively strong growth in 2013 and 2014.
PBC is expected to continue on its growth path towards its about € 3 billion income before income taxes ambition for 2015 and to achieve a targeted revenue base beyond € 10 billion with a cost/income ratio target of approximately 60 %. Strategically, we focus on being amongst Europe’s leading retail banks with a strong advisory business in our home market Germany – benefitting from the full integration of Postbank – and in international sweet spots such as other important European markets and key Asian countries. Furthermore, we will leverage our relative strength to grow our credit business at attractive margins and maintain a strong position with being a Top 5 deposit taker among Europe’s leading retail banks.
In Advisory Banking Germany, we expect to be able to reinforce our market position, continuing our success in deposit gathering and low-risk mortgage production as well as strengthening our investment and insurance product business. With the organizational realignment, we will seek to further enhance our value proposition and improve our delivery on customer preferences.
In Advisory Banking International we are capitalizing on our advisory strength in Europe and intend to further develop PBC’s profitable franchise as an affluent proposition with a focus on wealthy regions to be among Europe’s leading retail banks. PBC’s Asian growth option will be leveraged by the 19.99 % stake in Hua Xia Bank in China coupled with intensified cooperation, as well as further organic growth in India.
Consumer Banking will further pursue its growth path in Germany while further aligning its business and reducing costs via the implementation of organizational measures. Deutsche Bank and Postbank together are expected to continue their successful realization of synergies on the revenue and cost side. The integration of Postbank and the final conclusion of the domination and profit and loss transfer agreement in 2012 should enable PBC to fully achieve the synergies. Our new joint platform Magellan with integrated services, innovative tools and an end-to-end process model will drive PBC’s efficiency. While Postbank related cost-to-achieve (CtA) have peaked in 2012 in line with our integration plan, we forecast CtA related to our OpEx to increase compared to 2012. We expect our costs to further improve in 2013 – not at least thanks to growing synergies related to Powerhouse and initial savings related to OpEx.
However, in our German Advisory Banking and Consumer Banking business there are risks related to the Postbank integration process. On the cost side, there is a risk that synergies are not realized or are realized later than foreseen. Additionally, there is a risk that the costs to achieve the synergies are higher than expected. These risks are mitigated to the extent possible by a bottom up revalidation of synergy measures with ongoing tracking and reporting to senior management.
PBC may continue to face uncertainties in its operating environment, such as a risk of a significant decline in economic growth, which in turn would result in higher unemployment rates and could lead to increasing credit loss provisions and lower business growth, mainly outside Germany. The development of investment product markets and the respective revenues depend especially on the further development of the European macro-economic environment. Additionally, the continued low interest rates may further negatively impact PBC’s deposit margins. However, PBC will aim to strengthen its German credit business and expand margins, especially outside Germany in the coming years while maintaining strict risk discipline and carefully optimizing capital demand.