The outlook for transaction banking over the next two years will likely be influenced by a number of critical factors. The comparatively low interest rate levels seen in most markets during the last years are likely to persist in 2013 and 2014. Economic recovery may be starting slow in 2013, with a recession in the eurozone, but could be counterbalanced somewhat by a robust economic development in Emerging Markets and stabilization in the U.S. and Japan. Based on the assumption of increasing foreign demand, the GDP growth could accelerate in 2014. Significantly more expansive and rigorous regulation, including potential structural changes, as well as pressures on margins, costs and from litigations will continue to pose challenges to the overall banking industry.
Deutsche Bank’s Global Transaction Banking (GTB) business will be impacted by these challenges. The sustained momentum of profitable growth and client acquisition in the underlying business in recent years, together with its high quality and innovative products, leaves GTB well-placed to cope with these challenges and even grow its client base. Trade Finance may benefit from the global economic development, increased foreign trade and the expected stabilization of the lending business. In Trust and Securities Services, the outlook for increased origination activities in 2013 and a trend to concentrate investment banking services could provide growth opportunities. For Cash Management, the increased level of global activities is a potential positive factor whilst deposit growth may remain low in 2013 but could potentially recover in 2014. The business is focusing on deepening its client relationships with complex Corporates and Institutional Clients in existing regions as well as pushing further growth in certain Emerging Markets. Closer co-operation with other areas of the bank should ensure that a wider range of clients will benefit from GTB’s products and services.
Beyond the next two years, GTB’s aspiration is to grow its income before income taxes to € 2.4 billion by 2015, predominantly in the aforementioned focus areas. Additionally, investing in solutions, platforms and operational excellence while maintaining strict cost, risk and capital discipline supports this growth. The continuation and successful completion of the turnaround of the commercial banking activities in the Netherlands, which commenced during the fourth quarter of 2012, should as well be an integral part to achieve GTB’s strategic target.