Deutsche Bank
Annual Report 2012
Deutsche Bank Annual Report 2012
Corporate Banking & Securities

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Corporate Banking & Securities

For 2013 and 2014, we anticipate the investment banking industry will remain susceptible to uncertainty surrounding the macroeconomic and political environment, as discussed in the previous section. Industry challenges and opportunities likely to impact performance include the changing regulatory environment and the transformation of the competitive landscape, as polarization drives increased consolidation. We expect the return to stronger growth at the end of 2013 to bring about a reduction in central bank intervention and market influence, versus the elevated levels seen in 2012. Core bond yields are anticipated to gradually increase in 2013, but in an orderly process that reflects the underlying economic recovery and more positive macro environment. Despite a strong rally in 2012, equities are expected to remain strong, underpinned by a decline in macro risk, lower uncertainty around economic policy, and relatively low global cash and bond yields.

Deutsche Bank is well positioned to take advantage of the increased industry consolidation, and will begin to realize the benefits from the strategic plan laid out in September 2012. Corporate Banking & Securities (CB&S) will continue to leverage its strengths in fixed income flow through further platform integration, while scaling back higher risk, capital and regulatory intensive products. Geographically we will continue to streamline the business and ensure that resources are appropriately allocated to market opportunities. Together, these areas of focus will assist us in achieving our 2015 strategic targets of a post-tax return on average active equity of approximately 15 % on a Basel 3 fully loaded basis and a cost income ratio of less than 65 %. However there remain a number of risks and uncertainties, including; potential slowdown in activity due to protracted sovereign debt crisis and contagion risk; the impact of potential regulatory changes; potential margin compression and increased competition in products with lower capital requirements; outcome of litigation cases; risk of OpEx benefits not being fully realized; and a potential delay in execution of risk mitigation strategies.

In Sales & Trading, we expect revenues from fixed income flow products to remain strong in some markets, such as foreign exchange. Cash equities flow revenues may trend higher in the medium term as the global recovery takes hold. Margins are expected to be elevated from current levels as a result of market consolidation and capital pressure, potentially offset by the impact of regulatory change.

In Corporate Finance, we expect a modest medium term increase in fee pools. Debt issuance is expected to remain robust, particularly if the low interest rate environment persists. We expect M&A to be sustained at current levels; while the environment is generally attractive given low valuations and high cash levels, companies are likely to remain unwilling to commit to deals in the medium term given the uncertain environment. We anticipate Equity Capital Markets issuance will remain subdued as long as macro uncertainty persists.

Despite the challenging market conditions seen in recent years, and the continued uncertain outlook, by reaffirming focus, scale and efficiency and consolidating on previous success, CB&S is well positioned to face the potential challenges and opportunities the future environment may present.