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We use a comprehensive range of quantitative tools and metrics for monitoring and managing risks. As a matter of policy, we continually assess the appropriateness and the reliability of our quantitative tools and metrics in light of our changing risk environment. Some of these tools are common to a number of risk categories, while others are tailored to the particular features of specific risk categories. The following are the most important quantitative tools and metrics we currently use to measure, manage and report our risk:
ECONOMIC CAPITAL. Economic capital measures the amount of capital we need to absorb very severe unexpected losses arising from our exposures. “Very severe” in this context means that economic capital is set at a level to cover with a probability of 99.98% the aggregated unexpected losses within one year. We calculate economic capital for the default risk, transfer risk and settlement risk elements of credit risk, for market risk, for operational risk and for general business risk. We use economic capital to show an aggregated view of our risk position from individual business lines up to our consolidated Group level. We also use economic capital (as well as goodwill and other nonamortizing intangibles) in order to allocate our book capital among our businesses. This enables us to assess each business unit’s risk-adjusted profitability, which is a key metric in managing our financial resources in order to optimize the value generated for our shareholders. In addition, we consider economic capital, in particular for credit risk, when we measure the risk-adjusted profitability of our client relationships. See “
Overall Risk Position” below for a quantitative summary of our economic capital usage.
- EXPECTED LOSS. We use expected loss as a measure of our credit and operational risk. Expected loss is a measurement of the loss we can expect within a one-year period from these risks, based on our historical loss experience. When calculating expected loss for credit risk, we take into account credit risk ratings, collateral, maturities and statistical averaging procedures to reflect the risk characteristics of our different types of exposures and facilities. All parameter assumptions are based on statistical averages of our internal default and loss history as well as external benchmarks. We use expected loss as a tool of our risk management process and as part of our management reporting systems. We also consider the applicable results of the expected loss calculations as a component of our collectively assessed loss allowance included in our financial statements. For operational risk we determine the expected loss from statistical averages of our internal loss history, recent risk trends as well as forward looking expert estimates.
- VALUE-AT-RISK. We use the value-at-risk approach to derive quantitative measures for our trading book market risks under normal market conditions. Our value-at-risk figures play a role in both internal and external (regulatory) reporting. For a given portfolio, value-at-risk measures the potential future loss (in terms of market value) that, under normal market conditions, will not be exceeded with a defined confidence level in a defined period. The value-at-risk for a total portfolio represents a measure of our diversified market risk (aggregated using pre-determined correlations) in that portfolio.
- STRESS TESTING. We supplement our analysis of credit, market, liquidity and operational risk with stress testing. For market risk management purposes, we perform stress tests because value-at-risk calculations are based on relatively recent historical data, only purport to estimate risk up to a defined confidence level and assume good asset liquidity. Therefore, they only reflect possible losses under relatively normal market conditions. Stress tests help us determine the effects of potentially extreme market developments on the value of our market risk sensitive exposures, both on our highly liquid and less liquid trading positions as well as our investments. We use stress testing to determine the amount of economic capital we need to allocate to cover our market riskexposure under extreme market conditions. For credit risk management purposes, we perform stress tests to assess the impact of changes in general economic conditions on our credit exposures or parts thereof as well as the impact on the creditworthiness of our portfolio. Forliquidity risk management purposes, we perform stress tests and scenario analysis to evaluate the impact of sudden stress events on our liquidity position. For operational risk management purposes, we perform stress tests on our economic capital model to assess its sensitivity to changes in key model components, which include external losses. Among other things, the results of these stress tests enable us to assess the impact of significant changes in the frequency and/or severity of operational risk events on our operational risk economic capital.
- REGULATORY RISK REPORTING. German banking regulators assess our capacity to assume risk in several ways, which are described in more detail in Note [36] of the consolidated financial statements.
