We manage
country risk through a number of risk measures and limits, the most important being:
- TOTAL COUNTERPARTY
EXPOSURE. All credit extended and OTC
derivatives exposure to counterparties domiciled in a given country that we view as being at risk due to economic or political events (“country risk event”). It includes nonguaranteed subsidiaries of foreign entities and offshore subsidiaries of local clients.
- TRANSFER RISK EXPOSURE.
Credit risk arising where an otherwise solvent and willing debtor is unable to meet its obligations due to the imposition of governmental or regulatory controls restricting its ability either to obtain foreign exchange or to transfer assets to nonresidents (a “transfer risk event”). It includes all of our credit extended and
OTC derivatives
exposure from one of our offices in one country to a counterparty in a different country.
- HIGHLY-STRESSED
EVENT RISK SCENARIOS. We use stress testing to measure potential risks on our trading positions and view these as
market risk.
Country Risk Ratings
Our
country risk ratings represent a key tool in our management of country risk. They are established by an independent country risk research function within our Credit Risk Management function and include:
- SOVEREIGN RATING. A measure of the probability of the sovereign defaulting on its foreign or local currency obligations.
- TRANSFER RISK RATING. A measure of the probability of a “transfer risk event.”
- EVENT RISK RATING. A measure of the probability of major disruptions in the market risk factors relating to a country.
All sovereign and transfer risk ratings are reviewed, at least annually, by the Group Credit Policy Committee, a sub-committee of our Risk Executive Committee. Our country risk research group also reviews, at least quarterly, our ratings for the major
Emerging Markets countries. Ratings for countries that we view as particularly volatile, as well as all event risk ratings, are subject to continuous review.
We also regularly compare our internal risk ratings with the ratings of the major international
rating agencies.
Country Risk Limits
We manage our exposure to country risk through a framework of limits. The bank specifically limits and monitors its exposure to Emerging Markets. For this purpose, Emerging Markets are defined as Latin America (including the Caribbean), Asia (excluding Japan), Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa. Limits are reviewed at least annually, in conjunction with the review of country risk ratings. Country Risk limits are set by either our Management Board or by our Group Credit Policy Committee, pursuant to delegated authority.
Monitoring Country Risk
We charge our group divisions with the responsibility of managing their country risk within the approved limits. The regional units within Credit Risk Management monitor our country risk based on information provided by our finance function. Our Group Credit Policy Committee also reviews data on transfer risk.
Country Risk Exposure
The following tables show the development of total
Emerging Markets net counterparty exposure (net of collateral), and the utilized Emerging Markets net transfer risk exposure (net of collateral) by region.
|
Emerging Markets net counterparty exposure |
Dec 31, 2007 |
Dec 31, 2006 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||
|
Total net counterparty exposure |
22,000 |
11,511 | |||
|
Total net counterparty exposure (excluding OTC derivatives) |
16,580 |
8,895 | |||
|
Emerging Markets net transfer risk exposure |
Dec 31, 2007 |
Dec 31, 2006 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||
|
Africa |
508 |
352 | |||
|
Asia (excluding Japan) |
3,277 |
1,558 | |||
|
Eastern Europe |
1,856 |
1,079 | |||
|
Latin America |
658 |
411 | |||
|
Middle East |
2,931 |
1,492 | |||
|
Total Emerging Markets net transfer risk exposure |
9,230 |
4,892 | |||
As of December 31, 2007, our net transfer risk exposure to Emerging Markets (excluding irrevocable commitments and exposures to non-Emerging Markets bank branches) amounted to € 9.2 billion, an increase of 89%, or € 4.3 billion, from December 31, 2006. This increase was a result of selective increases in exposure due to improved credit quality in our Emerging Markets target countries.

